Jeanine Driscoll
Republican
Raised$665K
Cash on hand$271K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New York races
New York District 4
Solid D
Laura Gillen
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jeanine Driscoll
Republican
<1 in 100
Laura Gillen wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Laura Gillen +19.7.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gillen +19.7; 80 in 100 fall between Gillen +12.4 and Gillen +27.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Laura GillenIncumbent
Democratic · American politician and attorney (born 1969)
Laura Anne Gillen is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 4th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as the town supervisor of Hempstead, New York. Wikipedia
Raised$6.0M
Cash on hand$3.9M
Through 2026-09-30
Blay Tarnoff
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Laura Gillen against Jeanine Driscoll yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gillen >99, Driscoll <1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Gillen +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Gillen +19.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Gillen +19.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Laura Gillen >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Laura Gillen >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Laura Gillen >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #158 of 421