Brinker Harding
Republican
Raised$2.7M
Cash on hand$603K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Nebraska races
Nebraska District 2
Solid DLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: >99 in 100 that it changes hands.
Denise Powell
Democratic
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Brinker Harding
Republican
<1 in 100
Denise Powell wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Denise Powell +10.8 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Denise Powell +16.3. Polls get 57% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Powell +13.1; 80 in 100 fall between Powell +8.4 and Powell +17.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Denise Powell
Democratic
Raised$4.9M
Cash on hand$991K
Through 2026-09-30
Eric Foreman
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Powell +10.8 across 2 polls testing Denise Powell against Brinker Harding.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 377 LV | Powell +12.0 | Powell +14.5 | 0.48 |
| SurveyUSAA− for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 182 LV | Powell +4.0 | Powell +5.3 | 0.33 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Powell >99, Harding <1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 57% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Powell +10.8 | ±6.4 sampling range; effective 1.9 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Powell +16.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Powell +13.2 | ±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Denise Powell 98 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Denise Powell >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Denise Powell >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring
House races, closest first · this is #143 of 421