Adam Gray wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Adam Gray +17.9.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gray +17.9; 80 in 100 fall between Gray +10.6 and Gray +25.1.
Adam Channing Gray is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for California's 13th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia
Kevin Jeffery Lincoln II is an American politician, businessman, and pastor who served as the mayor of Stockton, California, from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Republican Party, Lincoln defeated Democratic incumbent Michael Tubbs in the 2020 election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Adam Gray against Kevin Lincoln yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gray >99, Lincoln <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Gray +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Gray +17.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Gray +17.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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