Victoria Broderick
Democratic
Raised$84K
Cash on hand$9K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Tennessee races
Tennessee District 4
Solid R
Victoria Broderick
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Scott DesJarlais
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Scott DesJarlais wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Scott DesJarlais +18.2.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin DesJarlais +18.2; 80 in 100 fall between DesJarlais +25.5 and DesJarlais +10.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Scott DesJarlaisIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1964)
Scott Eugene DesJarlais is an American politician and physician serving as the U.S. representative for Tennessee's 4th congressional district since 2011. The district stretches across East and Middle Tennessee. He is a member of the Republican Party and a conservative. Wikipedia
Raised$635K
Cash on hand$523K
Through 2026-09-30
Jacob Anders
Independent
Clay Faircloth
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Victoria Broderick against Scott DesJarlais yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Broderick <1, DesJarlais >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | DesJarlais +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | DesJarlais +18.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | DesJarlais +18.2 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Victoria Broderick <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Victoria Broderick <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Victoria Broderick <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #145 of 421