Thurman Bartie
Democratic
Raised$37K
Cash on hand$5K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 14
Solid R
Thurman Bartie
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Randy Weber
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Randy Weber wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Randy Weber +18.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Weber +18.1; 80 in 100 fall between Weber +25.3 and Weber +10.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Randy WeberIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1953)
Randall Keith Weber is an American businessman and politician who has represented Texas's 14th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives since 2013. He was previously a member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing the 29th district. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Raised$1.1M
Cash on hand$900K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Thurman Bartie against Randy Weber yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Bartie <1, Weber >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+12.0 | roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Weber +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Weber +18.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Weber +18.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Thurman Bartie <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Thurman Bartie <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Thurman Bartie <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #146 of 421