John Carter wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to John Carter +17.8.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Carter +17.9; 80 in 100 fall between Carter +25.1 and Carter +10.7.
John Rice Carter is an American politician serving as a U.S. representative representing Texas's 31st congressional district since 2003. The district includes the northern suburbs of Austin, as well as Fort Hood. He is a Republican. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Justin Early against John Carter yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Early <1, Carter >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Carter +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Carter +17.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Carter +17.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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