Brian Babin wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brian Babin +18.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Babin +18.0; 80 in 100 fall between Babin +25.3 and Babin +10.8.
Brian Philip Babin is an American dentist, politician and member of the Republican Party who has served as the U.S. representative from Texas's 36th congressional district since 2015. The district includes much of southeastern Houston, some of its eastern suburbs, and some more exurban and rural areas to the east. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Rhonda Hart against Brian Babin yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hart <1, Babin >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+12.0 | roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Babin +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Babin +18.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Babin +18.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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