Ben Cline wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ben Cline +18.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cline +18.0; 80 in 100 fall between Cline +25.2 and Cline +10.7.
Benjamin Lee Cline is an American politician and lawyer serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 6th congressional district since 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he represented the 24th district in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2002 to 2018. Wikipedia
Beth Macy is an American journalist and non-fiction writer. She is the author of five books including the four national bestsellers Factory Man (2014), Truevine (2016), Dopesick (2018) and Paper Girl (2025). Macy is a Democratic candidate for Virginia's 6th congressional district in 2026. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Beth Macy against Ben Cline yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Macy <1, Cline >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+12.0 | roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Cline +0.3 | In 2024 they ran 0.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Cline +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cline +18.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cline +18.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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