Andrew Beck
Democratic
Raised$15K
Cash on hand$3K
Through 2026-06-30
U.S. House · All Wisconsin races
Wisconsin District 5
Solid R
Andrew Beck
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Scott Fitzgerald
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Scott Fitzgerald wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Scott Fitzgerald +17.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fitzgerald +17.6; 80 in 100 fall between Fitzgerald +24.8 and Fitzgerald +10.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Scott FitzgeraldIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1963)
Scott Lawrence Fitzgerald is an American politician and former newspaper publisher. A Republican, he represents Wisconsin's 5th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The district includes many of Milwaukee's northern and western suburbs, such as Waukesha, West Bend, Brookfield, and Mequon. Wikipedia
Raised$1.7M
Cash on hand$1.1M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Andrew Beck against Scott Fitzgerald yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Beck <1, Fitzgerald >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Fitzgerald +1.6 | In 2024 they ran 3.2 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Fitzgerald +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Fitzgerald +17.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Fitzgerald +17.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Andrew Beck <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Andrew Beck <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Andrew Beck <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #150 of 421