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U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races

Texas District 22

Solid R
Compare
Marquette Greene-Scott
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Trever Nehls
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Trever Nehls wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Trever Nehls +17.7.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Nehls +17.8; 80 in 100 fall between Nehls +25.0 and Nehls +10.5.

Nehls +30Nehls +20Nehls +10Greene-Scott +10Greene-Scott +20Greene-Scott +30Tie

The candidates

Marquette Greene-Scott
Democratic
Raised
$63K
Cash on hand
$2K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Trever NehlsIncumbent
Republican
Raised
$311K
Cash on hand
$86K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Marquette Greene-Scott against Trever Nehls yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Greene-Scott <1, Nehls >99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+11.0roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyNehls +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateNehls +17.7±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastNehls +17.7±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Marquette Greene-Scott <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Marquette Greene-Scott <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Marquette Greene-Scott <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #142 of 421