Nancy Mannion
Democratic
Raised$305K
Cash on hand$55K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Pennsylvania races
Pennsylvania District 11
Solid R
Nancy Mannion
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Lloyd Smucker
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Lloyd Smucker wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Lloyd Smucker +17.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Smucker +18.0; 80 in 100 fall between Smucker +25.3 and Smucker +10.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Lloyd SmuckerIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1964)
Lloyd Kenneth Smucker is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, which includes Lancaster County and most of southern York County. Wikipedia
Raised$1.8M
Cash on hand$609K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Nancy Mannion against Lloyd Smucker yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Mannion <1, Smucker >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Mannion +0.0 | In 2024 they ran 0.0 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Smucker +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Smucker +17.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Smucker +17.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Nancy Mannion <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Nancy Mannion <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Nancy Mannion <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #141 of 421