Dina Titus wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Dina Titus +17.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Titus +17.5; 80 in 100 fall between Titus +10.2 and Titus +24.8.
Carrie Ann Buck is an American educator and politician currently serving as a Republican member of the Nevada Senate. She represents the 5th district, which covers parts of Henderson and Paradise to the south of Las Vegas in Clark County. In early 2025, Buck announced her campaign for the U.S. Wikipedia
Alice Constandina "Dina" Titus is an American politician who has been the United States representative for Nevada's 1st congressional district since 2013. Previously, she served as the U.S. representative for Nevada's 3rd congressional district from 2009 to 2011. Titus is a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Dina Titus against Carrie Buck yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Titus >99, Buck <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Titus +0.5 | In 2024 they ran 1.0 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Titus +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Titus +17.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Titus +17.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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