Doug Chapin
DFL
Raised$691K
Cash on hand$92K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Minnesota races
Minnesota District 6
Solid R
Doug Chapin
DFL
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Tom Emmer
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Tom Emmer wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tom Emmer +17.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Emmer +17.1; 80 in 100 fall between Emmer +24.4 and Emmer +9.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Tom EmmerIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1961)
Thomas Earl Emmer Jr. is an American attorney, lobbyist, and politician who has served as majority whip in the United States House of Representatives since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he has represented Minnesota's 6th congressional district since 2015. Wikipedia
Raised$10.7M
Cash on hand$3.7M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Doug Chapin against Tom Emmer yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Chapin <1, Emmer >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Emmer +0.6 | In 2024 they ran 1.1 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Emmer +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Emmer +17.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Emmer +17.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Doug Chapin <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Doug Chapin <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Doug Chapin <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #139 of 421