Frank Mrvan wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Frank Mrvan +17.3.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mrvan +17.3; 80 in 100 fall between Mrvan +10.0 and Mrvan +24.5.
Frank John Mrvan is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Indiana's 1st congressional district since 2021. From 2005 until 2021, he served as the township trustee for North Township, Indiana. Mrvan is a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
No public polls have tested Frank Mrvan against Barb Regnitz yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Mrvan >99, Regnitz <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Mrvan +2.0 | In 2024 they ran 3.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Mrvan +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Mrvan +17.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Mrvan +17.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
House races, closest first · this is #138 of 421