Courtney McClain
Democratic
Raised$100K
Cash on hand$31K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All South Carolina races
South Carolina District 4
Solid R
Courtney McClain
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
William Timmons
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
William Timmons wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to William Timmons +16.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Timmons +17.0; 80 in 100 fall between Timmons +24.3 and Timmons +9.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
William TimmonsIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1984)
William Richardson Timmons IV is an American politician, prosecutor, and Air Force officer serving as the U.S. representative for South Carolina's 4th congressional district since 2019. His district is in the heart of the Upstate and includes Greenville, Spartanburg, and most of their suburbs. Wikipedia
Raised$1.7M
Cash on hand$143K
Through 2026-09-30
Jessica Ethridge
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Courtney McClain against William Timmons yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: McClain <1, Timmons >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | McClain +1.6 | In 2024 they ran 3.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Timmons +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Timmons +16.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Timmons +16.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Courtney McClain <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Courtney McClain <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Courtney McClain <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #137 of 421