Josh Riley wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Josh Riley +16.8.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Riley +16.8; 80 in 100 fall between Riley +9.6 and Riley +24.0.
Peter Karl Oberacker Jr. is an American businessman and politician. He is a member of the New York State Senate representing the 51st district. Wikipedia
Joshua Paul Riley is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the U.S. representative for New York's 19th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously worked as a policy analyst at the U.S. Department of Labor and as counsel on the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Josh Riley against Peter Oberacker yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Riley >99, Oberacker <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Riley +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Riley +16.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Riley +16.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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