John Cowan
Republican
Raised$2.8M
Cash on hand$266K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Georgia races
Georgia District 11
Solid R
Chris Harden
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
John Cowan
Republican
>99 in 100
John Cowan wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to John Cowan +16.9.
Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: <1 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cowan +16.9; 80 in 100 fall between Cowan +24.1 and Cowan +9.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Chris Harden
Democratic
Raised$128K
Cash on hand$13K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Chris Harden against John Cowan yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Harden <1, Cowan >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+12.0 | roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cowan +16.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cowan +16.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Chris Harden <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Chris Harden <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Chris Harden <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
- Incumbent retiring
House races, closest first · this is #135 of 421