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U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races

Texas District 8

Solid R
Compare
Laura Jones
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Jessica Hart Steinmann
Republican
>99 in 100

Jessica Hart Steinmann wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jessica Hart Steinmann +16.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Steinmann +16.4; 80 in 100 fall between Steinmann +23.7 and Steinmann +9.1.

Steinmann +30Steinmann +20Steinmann +10Jones +10Jones +20Jones +30Tie

The candidates

Laura Jones
Democratic
Raised
$31K
Cash on hand
$4K
Through 2026-10-14
No biography on file yet.
Jessica Hart Steinmann
Republican
Raised
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$217K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Laura Jones against Jessica Hart Steinmann yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Jones <1, Steinmann >99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+13.0roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateSteinmann +16.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastSteinmann +16.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Laura Jones <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Laura Jones <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Laura Jones <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #134 of 421