Heidi Kuhn
Democratic
Raised$97K
Cash on hand$21K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Tennessee races
Tennessee District 8
Solid R
Heidi Kuhn
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
David Kustoff
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
David Kustoff wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to David Kustoff +16.5.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kustoff +16.5; 80 in 100 fall between Kustoff +23.8 and Kustoff +9.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
David KustoffIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1966)
David Frank Kustoff is an American politician and attorney serving as the United States representative from Tennessee's 8th congressional district. The district includes the bulk of West Tennessee, but most of its population is in the eastern part of the Memphis area, including the eastern fourth of Memphis itself. Wikipedia
Raised$2.5M
Cash on hand$3.0M
Through 2026-09-30
Adam Austill
Independent
Wells Blankenship
Independent
Antonio Futch
Independent
Pamela Moses
Independent
Horace Taylor
Independent
Henry Ward III
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Heidi Kuhn against David Kustoff yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Kuhn <1, Kustoff >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Kustoff +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Kustoff +16.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Kustoff +16.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Heidi Kuhn <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Heidi Kuhn <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Heidi Kuhn <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #133 of 421