Matthew Montavon
Democratic
Raised$148K
Cash on hand$33K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 17
Solid R
Matthew Montavon
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Greg Steube
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Greg Steube wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Greg Steube +16.5.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Steube +16.6; 80 in 100 fall between Steube +23.8 and Steube +9.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Greg SteubeIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1978)
William Gregory Steube is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 17th congressional district since 2019. His district is based in Sarasota. Wikipedia
Raised$1.6M
Cash on hand$2.1M
Through 2026-09-30
Michael Quirk
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Matthew Montavon against Greg Steube yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Montavon <1, Steube >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Steube +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Steube +16.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Steube +16.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Matthew Montavon <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Matthew Montavon <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Matthew Montavon <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #132 of 421