Matt Little wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Matt Little +16.4.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Little +16.4; 80 in 100 fall between Little +9.2 and Little +23.7.
Matthew Martin Little is an American attorney and politician and a former member of the Minnesota Senate. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), he represented District 58 in the southern Twin Cities metropolitan area from 2017 to 2021. Wikipedia
Eric R. Pratt is a Minnesota politician and member of the Minnesota Senate. A member of the Republican Party of Minnesota, he represents District 54 in the southwestern Twin Cities metropolitan area. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Matt Little against Eric Pratt yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Little >99, Pratt <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Little +16.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Little +16.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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