David Joyce wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to David Joyce +16.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Joyce +16.5; 80 in 100 fall between Joyce +23.8 and Joyce +9.2.
David Patrick Joyce is an American politician and attorney currently serving in the United States House of Representatives for Ohio's 14th congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, Joyce was previously the prosecutor of Geauga County, Ohio. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Maria Jukic against David Joyce yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Jukic <1, Joyce >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Joyce +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Joyce +16.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Joyce +16.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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