Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · open seat · All Louisiana races

Louisiana District 6

Solid RLikely flip · D → R
Compare

Democrats hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Republicans are favored: >99 in 100 that it changes hands.

Democratic field
D
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Republican field
R
>99 in 100

Republican field wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Republican field +22.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin field +22.4; 80 in 100 fall between field +29.7 and field +15.1.

field +30field +20field +10field +10field +20field +30Tie

The candidates

Monique Appeaning
Republican
Rufus Craig
Libertarian
Larry Davis
Republican
Rick Edmonds
Republican
Pat Forbes
Democratic
Lindsay Garcia
Democratic
Chris Johnson
Republican
Michael Mebruer
Republican
Blake Miguez
Republican
Stephen Wagley
Republican

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Democratic field against Republican field yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: field 0, field 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+16.0roughly 32 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimatefield +22.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecastfield +22.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Democratic field <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Democratic field <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Democratic field <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Louisiana’s House races hold an all-party primary on Nov. 3 with a Dec. 12 runoff if no one tops 50%; the forecast is for which party ultimately holds the seat.
  • Incumbent retiring to run for Louisiana State Senate
  • Louisiana House: all-party primary on Nov. 3; runoff Dec. 12 if no one tops 50%.

House races, closest first · this is #187 of 421