Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: 99 in 100 that it changes hands.
Marni von Wilpert wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Marni von Wilpert +7.3 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Marni von Wilpert +13.6. Polls get 61% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Wilpert +9.7; 80 in 100 fall between Wilpert +5.1 and Wilpert +14.4.
Jim Desmond is an American politician and retired aviator serving as a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors since 2019, representing the fifth district. Wikipedia
Marni Lynn von Wilpert is an American attorney and politician who has served as a member of the San Diego City Council since 2020, representing District 5. A member of the Democratic Party, she is a candidate for California's 48th congressional district in the 2026 election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Wilpert +7.3 across 2 polls testing Marni von Wilpert against Jim Desmond.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Wilpert 99, Desmond 1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 61% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Wilpert +7.3 | ±5.0 sampling range; effective 1.9 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Wilpert +13.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Wilpert +9.7 | ±3.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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