Susie Lee wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Susie Lee +14.6.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lee +14.6; 80 in 100 fall between Lee +7.3 and Lee +21.9.
Suzanne Marie Lee is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Nevada's 3rd congressional district since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, she represents southern Las Vegas and much of unincorporated Clark County. Wikipedia
Martin O'Donnell is an American composer, audio director, and sound designer best known for his work on video game developer Bungie's titles, including the Myth series, Oni, the Halo series, and Destiny. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Susie Lee against Martin O'Donnell yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Lee 99, O'Donnell 1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | O'Donnell +0.9 | In 2024 they ran 1.8 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Lee +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Lee +14.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Lee +14.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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