Tessa Lynn Hodge
Democratic
Raised$123K
Cash on hand$17K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All California races
California District 23
Solid R
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jay Obernolte
Republican · incumbent
99 in 100
Jay Obernolte wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jay Obernolte +14.5.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Obernolte +14.5; 80 in 100 fall between Obernolte +21.8 and Obernolte +7.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jay ObernolteIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1970)
Jay Phillip Obernolte is an American politician and businessman serving as the U.S. representative for California's 23rd district since 2021, when it was numbered as the 8th district. A Republican, he was previously a member of the California State Assembly representing the 33rd district. Wikipedia
Raised$1.8M
Cash on hand$1.4M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Tessa Lynn Hodge against Jay Obernolte yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hodge 1, Obernolte 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Obernolte +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Obernolte +14.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Obernolte +14.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Tessa Lynn Hodge 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Tessa Lynn Hodge 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Tessa Lynn Hodge 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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