John Croisant
Democratic
Raised$208K
Cash on hand$57K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Oklahoma races
Oklahoma District 1
Solid R
John Croisant
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mark Tedford
Republican
99 in 100
Mark Tedford wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Tedford +14.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Tedford +14.9; 80 in 100 fall between Tedford +22.1 and Tedford +7.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mark Tedford
Republican · American politician
Mark Tedford is an American politician and insurance agent who is the Oklahoma House of Representatives member from the 69th district. He represents Jenks and South Tulsa. Wikipedia
Raised$2.4M
Cash on hand$474K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested John Croisant against Mark Tedford yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Croisant 1, Tedford >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Tedford +14.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Tedford +14.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: John Croisant 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: John Croisant 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: John Croisant 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate
House races, closest first · this is #116 of 421