Tom Suozzi wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tom Suozzi +14.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Suozzi +14.5; 80 in 100 fall between Suozzi +7.2 and Suozzi +21.8.
Michael John LiPetri is an American Republican attorney and politician from New York State who served one term as a New York State Assemblyman from the 9th district from 2019 to 2021. Wikipedia
Thomas Richard Suozzi is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 3rd congressional district since 2024 and previously from 2017 to 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Tom Suozzi against Mike LiPetri yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Suozzi 99, LiPetri 1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Suozzi +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Suozzi +14.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Suozzi +14.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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