Ashley Bell
Democratic
Raised$139K
Cash on hand$12K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All North Carolina races
North Carolina District 10
Solid R
Ashley Bell
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Pat Harrigan
Republican · incumbent
99 in 100
Pat Harrigan wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Pat Harrigan +14.4.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Harrigan +14.5; 80 in 100 fall between Harrigan +21.7 and Harrigan +7.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Pat HarriganIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1987)
Patrick Luke Harrigan is an American politician, engineer, and former Army Special Forces officer serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 10th congressional district since 2025. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Raised$1.3M
Cash on hand$617K
Through 2026-09-30
Steve Feldman
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Ashley Bell against Pat Harrigan yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Bell 1, Harrigan 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Harrigan +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Harrigan +14.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Harrigan +14.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Ashley Bell 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Ashley Bell 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ashley Bell 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #111 of 421