Don Coover
Democratic
Raised$1.2M
Cash on hand$433K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Kansas races
Kansas District 2
Solid R
Don Coover
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Derek Schmidt
Republican · incumbent
99 in 100
Derek Schmidt wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Derek Schmidt +14.4.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Schmidt +14.4; 80 in 100 fall between Schmidt +21.7 and Schmidt +7.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Derek SchmidtIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1968)
Derek Larkin Schmidt is an American lawyer and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Kansas's 2nd congressional district since 2025. He previously served as the Kansas Attorney General from 2011 to 2023. Wikipedia
Raised$1.7M
Cash on hand$1.1M
Through 2026-09-30
John Hauer
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Don Coover against Derek Schmidt yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Coover 1, Schmidt 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Schmidt +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Schmidt +14.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Schmidt +14.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Don Coover 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Don Coover 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Don Coover 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #110 of 421