Laurel Lee wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Laurel Lee +14.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lee +14.5; 80 in 100 fall between Lee +21.9 and Lee +7.2.
Laurel Frances Lee is an American attorney, former judge, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 15th congressional district since 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Robert People against Laurel Lee yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: People 1, Lee 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Lee +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Lee +14.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Lee +14.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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