Callie Barr
Democratic
Raised$1.5M
Cash on hand$769K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Michigan races
Michigan District 1
Solid R
Callie Barr
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jack Bergman
Republican · incumbent
99 in 100
Jack Bergman wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jack Bergman +14.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bergman +14.2; 80 in 100 fall between Bergman +21.4 and Bergman +6.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jack BergmanIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1947)
John Warren Bergman is an American politician and retired United States Marine Corps lieutenant general serving as the U.S. representative from Michigan's 1st congressional district since 2017. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Raised$2.3M
Cash on hand$563K
Through 2026-09-30
LaVeta Davenport
Green
Zebulon Featherly
Independent
Liz Hakola
Working Class
Doc Kovaly
U.S. Taxpayers
Arnett Satterla
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Callie Barr against Jack Bergman yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Barr 1, Bergman 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Barr +2.3 | In 2024 they ran 4.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Bergman +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bergman +14.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bergman +14.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Callie Barr 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Callie Barr 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Callie Barr 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #108 of 421