Pete Sessions wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Pete Sessions +14.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Sessions +14.0; 80 in 100 fall between Sessions +21.3 and Sessions +6.7.
Peter Anderson Sessions is an American politician who serves in the United States House of Representatives for Texas's 17th congressional district as a member of the Republican Party. He chaired the House Rules Committee from 2013 to 2019 and is a former chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Casey Shepard against Pete Sessions yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Shepard 1, Sessions 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Sessions +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Sessions +14.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Sessions +14.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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