Wes Climer wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Wes Climer +14.1.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Climer +14.1; 80 in 100 fall between Climer +21.5 and Climer +6.8.
David Wesley Climer is an American politician. Since 2016, Climer has represented the 15th District (York) in the South Carolina Senate. He is a member of the Republican Party. He resigned from the state senate, effective November 3, 2026. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Mallory Dittmer against Wes Climer yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Dittmer 1, Climer 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Climer +14.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Climer +14.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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