Phil Ehr
Democratic
Raised$508K
Cash on hand$507K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 28
Solid R
Phil Ehr
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Carlos Giménez
Republican · incumbent
99 in 100
Carlos Giménez wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Carlos Giménez +14.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Giménez +14.0; 80 in 100 fall between Giménez +21.3 and Giménez +6.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Carlos GiménezIncumbent
Republican · Cuban-American politician (born 1954)
Carlos Antonio Giménez is a Cuban-born American politician and retired firefighter serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2021. He has represented Florida's 28th congressional district since 2023, previously representing the 26th district in his first term. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Eddy Rojas
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Phil Ehr against Carlos Giménez yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Ehr 1, Giménez 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Giménez +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Giménez +14.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Giménez +14.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Phil Ehr 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Phil Ehr 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Phil Ehr 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #105 of 421