Lance Gooden wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Lance Gooden +14.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gooden +14.1; 80 in 100 fall between Gooden +21.3 and Gooden +6.7.
Lance Carter Gooden is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 5th congressional district since 2019. His district includes parts of eastern Dallas, as well as a large swath of exurban and rural territory to Dallas's east. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Chelsey Hockett against Lance Gooden yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hockett 1, Gooden 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Gooden +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Gooden +14.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Gooden +14.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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