Richard Pan wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Richard Pan +4.9 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Richard Pan +15.5. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pan +10.0; 80 in 100 fall between Pan +5.0 and Pan +14.9.
Kevin Patrick Kiley is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for California's 3rd congressional district since 2023. Wikipedia
Richard Juien-Dah Pan is an American Democratic politician and physician who served in the California State Senate from 2014 to 2022, representing the 6th Senate district, which encompassed parts of Sacramento and Yolo counties. He is a practicing pediatrician and professor at the University of California, Davis. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Pan +4.9 across 1 poll testing Richard Pan against Kevin Kiley.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 741 LV | Pan +4.0 | Pan +4.9 | 0.29 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Pan 99, Kiley 1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Pan +4.9 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Kiley +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Pan +15.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Pan +10.0 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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