Cyril Jefferson
Democratic
Raised$229K
Cash on hand$11K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All North Carolina races
North Carolina District 6
Solid R
Cyril Jefferson
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Addison McDowell
Republican · incumbent
99 in 100
Addison McDowell wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Addison McDowell +14.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McDowell +14.0; 80 in 100 fall between McDowell +21.3 and McDowell +6.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Addison McDowellIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1994)
Addison Parker McDowell is an American politician and lobbyist serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Republican Party, McDowell was first elected in 2024. Wikipedia
Raised$1.4M
Cash on hand$423K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Cyril Jefferson against Addison McDowell yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Jefferson 1, McDowell 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | McDowell +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | McDowell +14.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McDowell +14.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Cyril Jefferson 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Cyril Jefferson 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Cyril Jefferson 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #102 of 421