Greg Cunningham
Republican
Raised$2.4M
Cash on hand$727K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New Mexico races
New Mexico District 2
Solid D
Gabe Vasquez
Democratic · incumbent
99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Greg Cunningham
Republican
1 in 100
Gabe Vasquez wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Gabe Vasquez +4.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Gabe Vasquez +14.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Vasquez +9.7; 80 in 100 fall between Vasquez +4.7 and Vasquez +14.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Gabe VasquezIncumbent
Democratic · American politician (born 1984)
Gabriel Vasquez is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served on the Las Cruces City Council from 2017 to 2021. Wikipedia
Raised$5.3M
Cash on hand$644K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Vasquez +4.8 across 1 poll testing Gabe Vasquez against Greg Cunningham.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAA− for KOB-TV (Albuquerque) | Aug 28–Sep 2 | 554 LV | Vasquez +3.0 | Vasquez +4.8 | 0.57 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Vasquez 99, Cunningham 1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Vasquez +4.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Vasquez +0.8 | In 2024 they ran 1.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Vasquez +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Vasquez +14.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Vasquez +9.7 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Gabe Vasquez 81 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Gabe Vasquez 99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Gabe Vasquez 99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #101 of 421