Michael Alfonso
Republican
Raised$1.7M
Cash on hand$540K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Wisconsin races
Wisconsin District 7
Solid R
Fred Clark
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Michael Alfonso
Republican
99 in 100
Michael Alfonso wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Michael Alfonso +13.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Alfonso +13.3; 80 in 100 fall between Alfonso +20.6 and Alfonso +6.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Fred Clark
Democratic · American politician (born 1959)
Fred Clark is an American conservationist, businessman, and Democratic politician from Bayfield, Wisconsin. He served three terms in the Wisconsin State Assembly, representing Baraboo and surrounding municipalities in central Wisconsin. Wikipedia
Raised$725K
Cash on hand$223K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Fred Clark against Michael Alfonso yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Clark 1, Alfonso 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Alfonso +13.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Alfonso +13.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Fred Clark 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Fred Clark 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Fred Clark 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for governor
House races, closest first · this is #100 of 421