Glenn Grothman wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Glenn Grothman +12.8.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Grothman +12.8; 80 in 100 fall between Grothman +20.0 and Grothman +5.5.
Glenn Sholes Grothman is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, he was first elected to his seat in 2014. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Brad Smith against Glenn Grothman yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Smith 1, Grothman 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Grothman +1.3 | In 2024 they ran 2.6 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Grothman +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Grothman +12.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Grothman +12.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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