Kristin Hook
Democratic
Raised$369K
Cash on hand$114K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races
Texas District 21
Solid R
Kristin Hook
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mark Teixeira
Republican
99 in 100
Mark Teixeira wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Teixeira +12.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Teixeira +12.9; 80 in 100 fall between Teixeira +20.2 and Teixeira +5.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mark Teixeira
Republican · American baseball player and politician (born 1980)
Mark Charles Teixeira, nicknamed "Tex", is an American politician and former professional baseball first baseman who played 14 seasons in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and New York Yankees. Wikipedia
Raised$4.3M
Cash on hand$496K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Kristin Hook against Mark Teixeira yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hook 1, Teixeira 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Teixeira +12.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Teixeira +12.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kristin Hook 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kristin Hook 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kristin Hook 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for Texas attorney general
House races, closest first · this is #98 of 421