Eric Conroy
Republican
Raised$2.2M
Cash on hand$333K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Ohio races
Ohio District 1
Solid D
Greg Landsman
Democratic · incumbent
99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Eric Conroy
Republican
1 in 100
Greg Landsman wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Greg Landsman +6.2 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Greg Landsman +12.3. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Landsman +9.1; 80 in 100 fall between Landsman +4.2 and Landsman +14.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Greg LandsmanIncumbent
Democratic · American politician (born 1976)
Gregory John Landsman is an American politician who has been the U.S. representative from Ohio's 1st congressional district since 2023. The district is based in Cincinnati, and includes most of its inner suburbs. Wikipedia
Raised$5.5M
Cash on hand$1.5M
Through 2026-09-30
Nathan Weise
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Landsman +6.2 across 1 poll testing Greg Landsman against Eric Conroy.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 509 LV | Landsman +3.3 | Landsman +6.2 | 0.37 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Landsman 99, Conroy 1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Landsman +6.2 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Landsman +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Landsman +12.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Landsman +9.1 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Greg Landsman 88 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Greg Landsman 99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Greg Landsman 99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #97 of 421