Stephanie Bice wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Stephanie Bice +13.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bice +13.0; 80 in 100 fall between Bice +20.3 and Bice +5.8.
Stephanie Irene Bice is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district since 2021. She is the first American of Iranian descent to be elected to Congress. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Jena Nelson against Stephanie Bice yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Nelson 1, Bice 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Nelson +0.3 | In 2024 they ran 0.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Bice +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bice +13.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bice +13.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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