Virginia Foxx wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Virginia Foxx +13.1.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Foxx +13.1; 80 in 100 fall between Foxx +20.3 and Foxx +5.8.
Virginia Ann Foxx is an American politician and educator serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 5th congressional district since 2005. A member of the Republican Party, Foxx has served as chair of the House Rules Committee since 2025 in the 119th Congress. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Chuck Hubbard against Virginia Foxx yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hubbard 1, Foxx 99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Foxx +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Foxx +13.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Foxx +13.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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