Jon Bonck
Republican
Raised$2.2M
Cash on hand$330K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races
Texas District 38
Solid R
Melissa McDonough
Democratic
1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jon Bonck
Republican
99 in 100
Jon Bonck wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jon Bonck +12.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bonck +12.9; 80 in 100 fall between Bonck +20.1 and Bonck +5.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Melissa McDonough
Democratic
Raised$117K
Cash on hand$60K
Through 2026-09-30
Alex McMenemy
Green
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Melissa McDonough against Jon Bonck yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: McDonough 1, Bonck 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bonck +12.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bonck +12.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Melissa McDonough 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Melissa McDonough 1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Melissa McDonough 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate
House races, closest first · this is #94 of 421