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U.S. House · All Wisconsin races

Wisconsin District 8

Solid R
Compare
Rick Crosson
Democratic
2 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Tony Wied
Republican · incumbent
98 in 100

Tony Wied wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tony Wied +12.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Wied +12.4; 80 in 100 fall between Wied +19.6 and Wied +5.2.

Wied +30Wied +20Wied +10Crosson +10Crosson +20Crosson +30Tie

The candidates

Rick Crosson
Democratic
Raised
$142K
Cash on hand
$46K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Tony WiedIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1976)

Anthony Christian Wied is an American politician from the Republican Party who is serving as the U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district since November 2024. Wikipedia

Raised
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$591K
Through 2026-09-30
Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Rick Crosson against Tony Wied yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Crosson +1 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Crosson 2, Wied 99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+8.0roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyWied +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateWied +12.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastWied +12.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Rick Crosson 2 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Rick Crosson 2 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Rick Crosson 2 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #93 of 421