Chris Gober
Republican
Raised$3.0M
Cash on hand$216K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Texas races
Texas District 10
Solid R
Caitlin Rourk
Democratic
2 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Chris Gober
Republican
98 in 100
Chris Gober wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chris Gober +12.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gober +12.3; 80 in 100 fall between Gober +19.6 and Gober +5.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Caitlin Rourk
Democratic
Raised$531K
Cash on hand$112K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Caitlin Rourk against Chris Gober yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Rourk 2, Gober 99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Gober +12.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Gober +12.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Caitlin Rourk 2 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Caitlin Rourk 2 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Caitlin Rourk 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring
House races, closest first · this is #92 of 421