Anthony DiLorenzo
Republican
Raised$5.1M
Cash on hand$596K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All New Hampshire races
New Hampshire District 1
Solid D
Stefany Shaheen
Democratic
98 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Anthony DiLorenzo
Republican
2 in 100
Stefany Shaheen wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Stefany Shaheen +4.5 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Stefany Shaheen +13.1. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Shaheen +8.6; 80 in 100 fall between Shaheen +3.7 and Shaheen +13.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Stefany Shaheen
Democratic
Raised$3.0M
Cash on hand$429K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Shaheen +4.5 across 1 poll testing Stefany Shaheen against Anthony DiLorenzo.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 711 LV | Shaheen +4.0 | Shaheen +4.5 | 0.57 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Shaheen 98, DiLorenzo 2.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Shaheen +4.5 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Shaheen +13.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Shaheen +8.7 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Stefany Shaheen 80 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Stefany Shaheen 98 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Stefany Shaheen 98 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate
House races, closest first · this is #91 of 421