Mark Lamb wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Lamb +12.2.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lamb +12.2; 80 in 100 fall between Lamb +19.5 and Lamb +5.0.
Mark Lamb is an American law enforcement officer and politician who served as sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona, from January 1, 2017 until December 31, 2024. He is a member of the Republican Party. Lamb previously served in the Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community police department. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Elizabeth Lee against Mark Lamb yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Lee 2, Lamb 98.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Lamb +12.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Lamb +12.2 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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